🔭 LONG TERM
🌳 STRUCTURAL STRESS — 5 TO 20 YEARS
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MODERATE
Structural score · 14 indicators · updated monthly
These signals don't scream. They whisper for years before the crisis becomes visible. Demographics, inequality, identity, trust — these are the slow patterns that decide a society's trajectory.
0
🔴 Critical
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🟠 High
0
🟡 Watch
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🟢 Stable
🔬 THE INDEX THAT IMPRESSES ANALYSTS
🔬
Beaver Physics — Turchin & Bifurcation
"History doesn't repeat itself. It rhymes."
🟣 Instability · Index 72

👶 Demographics

🍼
Total Fertility Rate
"America no longer reproduces itself."
CDC · FRED · updated yearly
1.63
🔴 Critical
Predicts 10–20 years
👶
Infant Mortality Rate
"5.4 per 1,000 — worst among wealthy nations."
CDC WONDER · updated yearly
5.4
🟠 High
Predicts 5–15 years
🌍
Foreign-Born Population Share
"14.3% born abroad — up from 4.7% in 1970."
Census · updated yearly
14.3%
🟠 Transition
Predicts 10–20 years
👨‍👧
Single-Parent / Nonmarital Births
"39.5% of births outside marriage — family structure collapse."
Census · CDC · Todd & Putnam
39.5%
🔴 Critical
Predicts 15–30 years

💀 Deaths of Despair

💊
Drug Overdose Deaths
"20.0 per 100,000 — about 69,000 deaths a year, the strongest US marker (Case & Deaton)."
CDC WONDER · updated monthly
20
🔴 Critical
Predicts 5–20 years
🧠
Male Suicide Rate
"Among the highest in the wealthy world — and rising for two decades."
World Bank · WHO 2021
22.1
🟠 High
Predicts 5–20 years
🍺
Alcohol-Related Liver Deaths
"12.7 per 100,000 — chronic liver disease, alcohol's main toll."
CDC WONDER · updated yearly
12.7
🟠 High
Predicts 5–20 years

🎓 Education and Elites

🎓
Education Gap Men/Women
"Women 37.4% vs men 34.8% with a degree — the gap widens by cohort."
Census ACS · updated yearly
+2.6pts
🔴 Critical
Predicts 10–20 years
⚖️
Elite Overproduction
"4.0 lawyers per 1,000 — Turchin's wealth-pump signal."
ABA · Turchin
4.0‰
🟠 High
Predicts 10–25 years

💰 Economy and Inequality

🏠
Housing Affordability Ratio
"Prices ~4.8× annual median income."
FRED · updated quarterly
~4.8x
🔴 Critical
Predicts 5–15 years
💼
Top 1% Income Share
"21% of national income to the top 1% — popular immiseration (Turchin)."
World Inequality Database · manual
21%
🔴 Critical
Predicts 5–20 years
💳
Household Debt Burden
"Debt service eating into disposable income."
FRED · updated quarterly
~11.2%
🟠 High
Predicts 3–10 years

🏛️ Society and Institutions

⛪
Secularization (Religious "Nones")
"29% with no affiliation — anthropological shift (Todd)."
Pew Research · manual update
29%
🟠 High
Predicts 10–30 years
🤝
Social Trust / Trust in Government
"22% trust the federal government — near historic low (Putnam)."
Pew · Gallup · manual update
22%
🟡 Watch
Predicts 10–25 years
🧬 Methodology
The structural score aggregates 15 structural indicators drawn from Todd, Turchin, Case & Deaton and Putnam. Three are shared with the Canadian and Russian editions — the Turchin index, male life expectancy and the female-male life-expectancy gap — and are computed from the same source, the same series and the same thresholds for all three countries, so the three scores can actually be compared. Elite overproduction and the top 1% income share are no longer scored on their own: they are inputs to the Turchin index, and counting them twice would have double-weighted the same thing.

Thresholds are not chosen. Where a variable is monotonic — longer life is always better, lower infant mortality is always better — the healthy and critical marks are the 10th and 90th percentiles of the observed distribution, world or high-income depending on which one still tells these countries apart without pinning any of them to 100. Fertility is the exception: its world 90th percentile sits near five children per woman, so it is anchored at generational replacement (2.1) instead.

Each indicator also carries its direction of travel, judged against the series' own year-to-year wobble rather than a threshold someone picked. Automated from FRED, CDC WONDER, Census and the World Bank; four indicators are updated manually once a year from their primary source — secularization (Pew), social trust (Gallup), single-parent births (CDC NVSS) and the figures behind the Turchin index. No invented numbers.