🔭 LONG TERM
🌳 STRUCTURAL STRESS — 5 TO 20 YEARS
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MODERATE
Structural score · 14 indicators · Updated daily
These signals don't scream. They whisper for years before the crisis becomes visible. Demographics, inequality, identity, trust — these are the slow patterns that decide a society's trajectory.
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🔴 Critical
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🟠 High
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🟡 Watch
🔬 THE INDEX THAT IMPRESSES ANALYSTS
🔬
Beaver Physics — Turchin & Bifurcation
"History doesn't repeat itself. It rhymes."
🟣 Instability · Index 72

👶 Demographics

🍼
Total Fertility Rate
"America no longer reproduces itself."
CDC · FRED · updated yearly
1.63
🔴 Critical
Predicts 10–20 years
👶
Infant Mortality Rate
"5.4 per 1,000 — worst among wealthy nations."
CDC WONDER · updated yearly
5.4
🟠 High
Predicts 5–15 years
🌍
Foreign-Born Population Share
"14.3% born abroad — up from 4.7% in 1970."
Census · updated yearly
14.3%
🟠 Transition
Predicts 10–20 years
👨‍👧
Single-Parent / Nonmarital Births
"40.8% of births outside marriage — family structure collapse."
Census · CDC · Todd & Putnam
40.8%
🔴 Critical
Predicts 15–30 years

💀 Deaths of Despair

💊
Drug Overdose Deaths
"~69,000 deaths a year — the strongest US marker (Case & Deaton)."
CDC WONDER · updated monthly
~69k
🔴 Critical
Predicts 5–20 years
🧠
Male Suicide Rate
"22.1 per 100,000 men — rising for two decades."
CDC WONDER · updated yearly
22.1
🟠 High
Predicts 5–20 years
🍺
Alcohol-Related Liver Deaths
"12.7 per 100,000 — chronic liver disease, alcohol's main toll."
CDC WONDER · updated yearly
12.7
🟠 High
Predicts 5–20 years

🎓 Education and Elites

🎓
Education Gap Men/Women
"Women 37.4% vs men 34.8% with a degree — the gap widens by cohort."
Census ACS · updated yearly
+2.6pts
🔴 Critical
Predicts 10–20 years
⚖️
Elite Overproduction
"3.9 lawyers per 1,000 — Turchin's wealth-pump signal."
BLS · Census · Turchin
3.9‰
🟠 High
Predicts 10–25 years

💰 Economy and Inequality

🏠
Housing Affordability Ratio
"Prices ~4.8× annual median income."
FRED · updated quarterly
~4.8x
🔴 Critical
Predicts 5–15 years
💼
Top 1% Income Share
"21% of national income to the top 1% — popular immiseration (Turchin)."
World Inequality Database · manual
21%
🔴 Critical
Predicts 5–20 years
💳
Household Debt Burden
"Debt service eating into disposable income."
FRED · updated quarterly
~11.2%
🟠 High
Predicts 3–10 years

🏛️ Society and Institutions

⛪
Secularization (Religious "Nones")
"29% with no affiliation — anthropological shift (Todd)."
Pew Research · manual update
29%
🟠 High
Predicts 10–30 years
🤝
Social Trust / Trust in Government
"~22% trust the federal government — near historic low (Putnam)."
Pew · Gallup · manual update
~22%
🟡 Watch
Predicts 10–25 years
🧬 Methodology
The structural score aggregates 14 structural indicators drawn from Todd, Turchin, Case & Deaton and Putnam (fertility, infant mortality, births to foreign-born parents, single-parent families, drug overdoses, male suicide, alcohol deaths, M/W education gap, elite overproduction, housing, top 1% income share, household debt, secularization, social trust). Automated from FRED, CDC WONDER, Census and BLS; secularization, social trust and top 1% income share updated manually (once a year). No invented numbers.