🦫 BEAVER.WATCH
DÉPART
▸ INSTITUTIONAL SIMULATION · 🇺🇸 UNITED STATES

You cannot change
the structure. Only
your exposure to it.

5 minutes. You chair the investment committee of a pension plan. Two allocation decisions, ten years. The structural drivers move on their own — your choices only decide how much of the portfolio sits on top of them.

9
Exposures
10
Years
∞
Scenarios
▸ Role: CHAIR OF THE INVESTMENT COMMITTEE
▸ Lens: STRUCTURAL POLITICAL RISK
▸ Horizon: 10 YEARS
▸ YOUR STARTING PORTFOLIO

Here is what you are exposed to.

An illustrative policy portfolio for a North American pension plan: 45% US equity, 20% US fixed income, 15% real assets, 12% private markets, 8% non-US. Here is its exposure to nine structural drivers.

3
🔴
CRITICAL
Single-assumption concentration · Political stability · Federal fiscal path
2
🟠
HIGH
Demographic growth · Inequality & consumption
4
🟡
WATCH
Household balance sheets · Real assets · Liquidity · Benchmark deviation
0
🟢
STABLE
None
▸ SEE THE UNDERLYING STRESS INDEX →
▸ HOW IT WORKS

The rules of the game.

You'll have 2 resources to manage over 5 years.

📊
Your polling numbers
Board and beneficiary confidence in your stewardship. Below 40%, you risk losing the next election. Below 30%, you lose it.
⚡
Your governance budget
Your power reserves. Each decision costs you. If you hit 0, you're paralyzed.
⚔️
Every decision has opponents
Lobbyists, media, provinces, foreign interests. You'll have to choose: apply, modify, or withdraw.
🦫
The Beaver watches
No judgment. Just observation. 5 years later, the Beaver reveals your final score on 9 indicators.
▸ STEP 1 OF 3

Choose your doctrine.

The investment philosophy your committee is governed by.

⚖️
Liability-driven
Match the pension promise · Duration first
📈
Total return
Growth assets · Accept volatility
🏛️
Endowment model
Heavy private markets · Illiquidity premium
🧮
Risk parity
Balance risk contribution · Leverage bonds
📐
Benchmark-hugging
Minimise tracking error · Career-safe
🧭
Structural / thematic
Allocate against long-run drivers
🔄
Contrarian value
Buy what the committee dislikes
▸ STEP 2 OF 3

Which decade do you plan for?

You can select several. These move on their own — you do not control them.

☮️
Muddle through
No regime change over the decade
💵
Fiscal deterioration
Debt path steepens · Term premium rises
🇨🇳
Confrontation with China
Supply chains fragment · Tariffs
🕌
Middle East war
Energy shock · Inflation resurfaces
📉
Deep recession
Earnings fall · Credit repricing
🤖
AI productivity boom
Growth surprises up · Gains concentrate
🔥
Domestic instability
Contested politics · Policy discontinuity
▸ STEP 3 OF 3

Your 2 allocation moves.

Each one has to survive the committee.

🌍 Cut US weight, diversify abroad
45% → 30% US equity · Add ex-US developed
🇺🇸 Add to US equity
45% → 55% · The winning market since 2010
📏 Extend Treasury duration
Long bonds to match the liability
🛡️ Add inflation-linked bonds
TIPS · Hedge the fiscal-inflation path
🏗️ Increase real assets
Infrastructure · Contracted cash flows
🔒 Increase private markets
12% → 25% · Illiquidity premium
💧 Cut private markets
Rebuild liquidity · Accept lower expected return
🏥 Overweight healthcare
The one sector ageing works for
🛒 Underweight US consumer
Earnings resting on stretched households
☂️ Buy a tail hedge
Systematic protection · Costs carry every year
📐 Stay at policy benchmark
Change nothing · Defensible in any review
0 / 2 decisions selected
▸ YEAR 1 · DECISION 1

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Here's who opposes you.

▸ HOW WILL YOU REACT?
▸ THE BEAVER OBSERVES
🦫

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▸ UNFORESEEN EVENT
⚡

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▸ HOW WILL YOU REACT?
▸ YEAR 2 · DECISION 2

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New opponents.

▸ HOW WILL YOU REACT?
▸ THE BEAVER OBSERVES
🦫

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▸ FAST FORWARD

5 years later...

Here is where the portfolio ended up.

▸ MANDATE REPORT

Final Beaver Score

Structural exposure of the portfolio
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