🛒 Canadian Tire Flyer Index — Loading...
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Short-Term Indicator #08 — BEAVER.WATCH
Canadian Tire
Flyer
"Safety or fun — what the flyer reveals."
Composite Score
🛒 FLYER INDEX
Flipp.com · Monthly analysis
10
🟢 STABLE
🟢
0.00 – 0.39
Leisure dominant
Canadians relaxed
🟠
0.40 – 0.64
Tension
Shift toward safety
🔴
0.65 – 1.00
Crisis
Survival first
What this score means
The flyer reveals the mindset of Canadians.
À 0.10, the flyer is dominated by leisure products — BBQs, sports, camping, décor. Canadians are spending for pleasure. When the score rises toward 0.65+, the flyer fills with padlocks, CO₂ detectors, generators — survival purchases. This is the collective anxiety thermometer.
📊 Key Indicators
0.10
Current composite score
Safety/leisure ratio
LEISURE
Dominant mode
This week's flyer
Monthly
Analysis frequency
Monthly update
Monthly
Comparative signal
Safety vs leisure
🔗 How this indicator works
01
The flyer reflects anticipated demand — Canadian Tire plans its promotions 6 to 8 weeks ahead based on projected purchases. This is a leading signal.
02
Safety vs leisure ratio — Each product is classified: locks, detectors, emergency = safety. BBQ, sports, décor = leisure. The score measures the shift.
03
Progressive shift — The score rises slowly over several weeks before a crisis becomes visible in official statistics.
04
Current resilience signal — A low score (like now) indicates Canadians still have the means to think about pleasure. That's relatively good news.
📈 Recent History
Jan 2025
0.22
Mar 2025
0.28
Jun 2025
0.15
Oct 2025
0.31
Feb 2026
0.18
May 2026
0.10
⚠️ Transparency Note
The score is calculated by automated analysis of the bi-weekly Canadian Tire flyer via Flipp.com. The safety/leisure classification is based on defined product categories. A low score (leisure) does not indicate the absence of economic problems — it indicates that mainstream demand remains pleasure-oriented for now.
Méthodologie
Automated Python script — analyzes the Canadian Tire flyer via Flipp.com once per month. Ratio = (safety products) ÷ (total products). Safety categories: locks, detectors, emergency, food storage, generators, first aid. Leisure categories: BBQ, sports, recreational camping, décor, consumer electronics. Normalized score 0–1.
🦫
The Beaver Says
"When Canadians buy BBQs, the Beaver sleeps well. When they buy generators and padlocks, the Beaver knows something has changed — 4 to 6 weeks before the newspapers. 🛒🦫"