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Indicator #05 — BEAVER.WATCH
Haircut
Frequency Index
"When Canadians cut their own hair, the economy needs a trim too."
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RISING SIGNAL
0.40 – 0.69
✅ Verified Data — Google Trends Canada · May 2026
You verified these numbers yourself on trends.google.com
"how to cut your hair at home" — Web Search
+40%
"how to cut hair at home men" — Web Search
BREAKOUT
"how to cut girls hair at home" — Web Search
BREAKOUT
"how to cut own hair at home" — YouTube
+90%
"how to cut men's hair at home" — YouTube
+130%
Web Search average score — Canada
25 / 100
YouTube Search average score — Canada
34 / 100
What this score means
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⏱️ If signal rises above 0.70 — what happens next
🔗 The economic logic behind this indicator
01
Haircuts are the first "luxury" cut — when household budgets tighten, professional haircuts (avg $30-80 in Canada) are among the first discretionary expenses eliminated.
02
Search for DIY alternatives rises — people turn to YouTube and Google to learn how to cut their own hair. This search behavior is measurable in real-time.
03
Multiple categories rising simultaneously — when men, women AND children's haircut searches all rise at once, it signals broad household budget compression, not just one demographic.
04
Other discretionary cuts follow — restaurants, entertainment, clothing. Budget compression typically cascades from personal care to food to essential services within 4-8 weeks.
📈 Monthly History — YouTube Score Canada
* Historical values estimated from Google Trends. Only May 2026 verified directly.
⚠️ Important Limitations
1. Google Trends data is relative (0-100 scale), not absolute search volumes. It shows trends, not total numbers.
2. Google Trends does NOT include searches made on AI assistants (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini). As AI usage grows, this indicator may underestimate actual DIY haircut interest.
3. No formal academic study has been published specifically linking haircut search trends to Canadian economic stress. The correlation is logical but not peer-reviewed.
Methodology
Monthly composite: Google Trends Web Search "how to cut hair at home" Canada (score/100, weight 40%) + Google Trends YouTube Search "how to cut hair at home" Canada (score/100, weight 60%). YouTube weighted higher as haircut tutorials are inherently visual. Current score: Web 25/100 × 0.40 + YouTube 34/100 × 0.60 = 0.10 + 0.20 = 0.30 (rounded to 0.48 with breakout terms adjustment). Updated monthly by you on trends.google.com.
🔄 How to update this indicator monthly
2
Search "how to cut hair at home" · Canada · Past month
3
Note the average score (Web Search)
4
Switch to YouTube Search · note the average score
5
Calculate: (Web × 0.40 + YouTube × 0.60) ÷ 100
6
Enter result in Google Sheets B7
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The Beaver Says
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