⚖️ Insolvency Index

Short-Term Indicator #05 — BEAVER.WATCH

Insolvency
Index

"When debt becomes too heavy, the insolvency filing is the final signal — and it never lies."

✅ Official source — Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy

Public, verifiable data, updated automatically

Source

OSB — Open Data Canada

Measure

BIA insolvencies, all provinces

Comparison

Year-over-year change

Frequency

Monthly (auto)

Invented figures

None

What this score means

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🔗 The economic logic of this indicator

Insolvency is a late but certain signal — unlike Google searches, a BIA filing is a formal legal act: it reflects not worry, but a proven inability to pay.

Bankruptcies + proposals — the measure sums both types of insolvency filings, for individuals and businesses, by province, for the latest published month.

Year-over-year smooths the noise — the OSB itself warns that monthly figures are volatile. Comparing to the same month last year neutralizes seasonality and reveals the real trend.

A sustained rise confirms the other signals — when insolvency climbs alongside payday loans and food stress, household squeeze is no longer a forecast: it is measured.

⚠️ Important limitations

1. The OSB publishes monthly figures with a 5-to-6-week lag, so this indicator reflects the most recent available month, not the current one.

2. Monthly figures are volatile; the OSB recommends focusing on trends. That is why we use year-over-year change.

3. The monthly tab does not separate consumers from businesses; this score measures total insolvency (individuals make up the large majority).

Methodology

Automatic download of the monthly file from the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy (Open Data Canada). We sum BIA insolvencies across the 13 provinces and territories for the latest published month, then compute the change versus the same month last year. Conversion to a 0–1 score: falling or stable ≈ 0.30; +10% ≈ 0.50; +25% ≈ 0.70; +40% and up ≈ 0.90+. Monthly update fully automated (GitHub Actions). No invented figures.